11/09/2013

Good morning all,

Bonds took another tentative step towards taper as Putin becomes peace envoy for the world (temporarily).  Bunds opened weaker than anticipated yesterday and never even came close to looking at the opening gap. I think we may consider testing Friday mornings low but we're probably at an area for range bound trading til FOMC next week.

There is plenty of upside room if Syria idea goes pear shaped...But as I believe it we could have 45 days before that will happen.

 Bund appears to be weaker than its U.S. equivilant just now. Taperlite being positioned for possibly.

Eurex bond curves appear to have reached highs  and may look for a pause before continuing higher....I'm looking for retracements to buy dips. Only selling to go short in the event of quick stop catch trading.

 

€ teds, as expected bobl ted showed strength as Syria situation improves.

 

 

New bund auction to watch out for this morning along with ger CPI.

 

Good luck

L

10/09/2013

Good morning,

I expected a bit more of a sell off in U.S. treasuries overnight with the likelyhood of a strike on Syria beginning to look less on the cards. The fact that it's not cut and dry yet is probably holding the bonds up for now.
tya

Bunds, largly sideways day yesterday a typically quiet post non farm monday. I'm looking for a break of 137.35/31 area to be a target to increase my Steepening bias. Will also look to fade any moves up to 138.00. Everything between is just comission and chop.

€ curve, buying dips

€teds vs Schatz 14 bors continue to trend higher as you would expect in improving economic conditions. Whilst war premium has had an effect further down bor expiries vs Bobl. Could be value here in buying bobl teds....But with inconsistant liquidity provided by the algos. Back bors are always prone to big overshoots.

 

Not sure Italian GDP will have too much impact on the markets today unless shockingly bad, we do have a Bund auction to watch out for.

 

BTP Bund spread

Have fun

L

 

 

 

 

 

09/09/2013

Good morning all,
Negative Non Farm number inspired a long end rally on Friday. Then Obama and Putin not seeing eye to eye scared the bejeeeezus out of everyone. So we find ourselves not too far away from the bottom of the start of last weeks range. Taking back quite a large chunk of "everythings fixed". Looks like a good place to reinstate a short bias on bonds with one eye on what goes on once Obama gets out of Russia.
TY

Bund

Looking at fading into Steepeners, keeping trailing stops tight aware of Syria comments. Also consider Hilsenrath comments after NFP. Sept taper not a done deal.....I'm sure that only puts it off for 4 weeks. (unless NFP is bad again(pattern emerging here))

Bor spreads,

ty vs bund since roll.

 

€ teds

 

 

NFP friday

Good morning all.

Ten year made a new low overnight but with little conviction. Enough tho to suggest there won't be any bounce in the Eurex open until new lows have been explored.
Ten year

Bund

€ curves Steepening as you would expect, I wont be stepping  infront of that freight train just now. #BuyanydipstilNFP

From 15s out the Euribor has been sold even heavier than bonds...Rate rises being priced in sooner than many would have expected. Beginning to question the main Stir market participants and whether they just follow the path of least resistance. Seems like they are getting ahead of central banks everywhere.

 

Is this just a little over extended?

Bobl ted examples

 

Well I've read a lot this week about how today Non Farm number could influence a September Taper. I'm not so sure. Maybe a really bad number may encourage the Fed to put it off a month but I think they have already made their minds up to start. Needless to say there will be action today.

 G20 don't seem to be agreeing on what course of action to take on Syria. So there is reason for caution on this bond down move.

 

Be Lucky

L

 

ECB day

Good morning all,

Overnight U.S. bonds continued its path downwards so I expect bunds to open off and test  139.45 (sep contract)area early on. I should imagine that most of this am's activity will be about rolling into dec in the Eurex bonds so we can get that mess out of the way before ECB.
Ten Year

Bund

€ curve

Yesterday saw real outperformance in the Bobl despite a below average auction. I'm guessing the roll had something to do with that. Needless to say I'll be staying clear of anything here til ECB. When I will be focusing on Dec expiry.
€ teds Schatz teds continue its slow grind higher, whilst the Bobl strength has led to slight Cheapening there.

Spain has a 10 year auction today but the main focus today will be on the BoE and the ECB.

 

Gilt Bund spread

 

 

 

Good luck

L

 

Armegeddon Days Are Here.....Again

My information streams are getting clogged up with Syria news these days. I guess its only a matter of time before the strikes occur. Once again positive numbers in the U.S. shrugged off. Quite some down move in bonds was triggered from the ISM number but by the close of Eurex we were back to pre release levels.

Very choppy price action as you would expect with the fundamentals and Geo political themes contrasting at the mo. We appear to be in the middle of range at for me, the Eurex roles and ECB coming up later this week I see no need to make directional calls to today. Keeping powder dry and being able to respond to events/comments as they unfold.

€ curves continue the slow climb higher in the longer term. Short term will be effected by any Middle east action.

Plenty of EU data to watch for this am including EUR GDP and Retail Sales. Also a Bobl auction.

 

Good Luck

L

 

Thin overnight sell off in bonds as Syria attack been temporarily put off. Could see the Bunds into the 140.20s early on. I think Eurex rollover takes precident early part of this week. Although there are a couple of ECB speakers this morning Labor day means could be thin and lacking in action this afternoon.

 

 

€ curves, I'll be looking at steepeners whilst bunds are below 140.95 in bonds but with one eye on the middle east.

In stirs however, rates lower for longer in my head. I think the 14s vs 15s have been dragged higher by U.S. rate expectations most of the summer and could be a little steep. May look at putting flatteners on.

 

Eu PMI's out this am. As its Labor day could be quiet...

Good Luck

 

L