NFP friday.

Hello campers.

NFP friday is here, so lets all pull our orders and go for a run.   Bonds drifted off most of yesterday Draghi comments about sovereign bond buying helped compress periph spreads against bunds. Crude oil stayed out of the headlines by not making another new low the same goes for the Euro and all other USD pair for that matter. All in all I guess it was pre NFP square up across the board. So sideways till the data release.


tya 240min

Very balanced but still in the uptrend longer term.

30 min

 

Mini SnP 240min

 

Bund 240min

 

bund 30min

 

 

Stoxx 240min

 

 

 

NFP

 

 

 

 

 

Laters

Lee

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/01/2015

Good morning all,

Nothing to right home about regarding the Fomc minutes last night, we're as likely to see higher rates by March as we are to see unchanged all year just now. Jun/Sep is where the most money is but if they don't it'll be the RoW's fault for not doing enough to improve their own position. Most fingers will be pointing at the ECB on this point.
So deflation in Europe confirmed as expected, the slight worse than expected being blamed on the recent collapse of Oil prices. Thats just turd polishing. Europe is struggling and with the Greek election 2 days after ECB meet to set stimulus QE question is all up in there air. Draghi cant be pulling any hot air tactics and maintain any level of credibility.
Eu PPi and BOE rate decision out this morning but with NFP out tomorrow today could be rather quiet.

TYA  30 min

240min

Bigger picture is still up but we have some room for a drift lower. I'm looking at ~127.28 to be the decision point whether the trend stays mid term. I do see minor support in front of this being around obvious 128.00. It would take an awful NFP to make a new hi (I think).


Bund 30min

bund 240min

Short term bunds could test 156.20 area but risks on fading rallies short still outweigh buying the dip.

€ curve

 

€ teds

 

Eurostoxx 240min

EurUsd future 240min

 

 

Emini SnP 240min

 

WTI 240min

 

 

;-)

 

L

 

07/010/2015

A host of worthwhile data out today starting with some European Unemployment then CPI. In the US ADP may be of interest. Whilst Fomc minutes late on ensure we have no excuse for complacency.

TYA 240min

 Bund 240min

Break of range via the path of least resistance new hi of 157.20. No positive vibes from inflation data anticipated.

€ ted

Media hype around Grexit putting pressure on their bonds. I'm watching btp-bund spread as a sentiment gauge. Although the EuroStoxx is displaying its discontent by searching out that 15th Oct low.

EuroStoxx 240min

Euro continues to weaken

EURUSD future

€ curve 

Good Luck

06/01/2015

Peaceful start to the week on bonds & stirs. I think its a case of balancing the low volume rally. No real conviction to make a new high although the general underlying bid tone prevented any significant move lower.

TY 240min

30 min

Bund 240 min

Plenty of room for a move lower without breaking the up trend. Just looking for a break of yesterdays range one way or the other for todays action.

bund 30 min

€ curve

With Bobl now ~ 0% action in 2s5s is rather muted. 

Teds

EURUSD future Weekly

PMIs out this morning, and keep an eye on the gilt auction.

Good Luck

L

05/01/2015

US t note.
240 min
momentum strong up. Thing holiday market may have added to this. So  sit on hands and wait for business as usual to settle in.

30min candle

Mini SnP 240min

Euro Future (E6) 240 min

 



Euro Stoxx 240min

 

 

Bund 240min

Bund 30 min

 

Euro Investor confidence, German CPI this morning. ISM New York this afternoon.

 

Good Luck

L

 

 

Known Unknowns

No looking at the markets, charts or news. Not even gym. Just eating, drinking and playing games with the kids for 2 weeks.
So I'm just gonna waffle on about a few things that will shape my trading eye for Q1 2015.

Decisive outcomes.....Good or Bad are met with relief in the trading world. Its the bit in the middle that we don't like.
Grexit
So 2015 kicks off with a Greek election that has seen the resurrection of the "Grexit" term. Syriza do as they promise if they get in and Draghi wont have to worry so much about full QE questions for a while....Other "periph" nations of Europe will also consider to vote for populist anti ECB.
Spain takes to the polls later in the year and the outcome of the Greek election could be an influence.

QE or not QE
Draghi can keep waxing lyrical about structural reforms or how we need to wait for the effects of TLTRO to filter through. Other governmental uncertainties aside every rate meeting will be dominated by how and when the ECB buy sovereign debt.

Russian Soldiers holidaying in The Ukraine.
No sign of  Putin bowing to the west and changing his stance on this subject. Sanctions on the nation add to that a very weak Oil price. Will a Russian debt default impact on the global markets? The situation has only added extra pressure to Europe and its attempts to stave off stagnation.

SNB & defending the Franc floor. (Pissing in the wind). All ECB action to inject economic growth in Euro nations only adds to the flight of money into Swiss Francs. Interesting tug of war that cannot be resolved whilst Europe is in such a mess.

UK general election and rate rises.
The first rate rise could trigger a number of pessimistic outcomes. Self fulfilling prophecy how fast and how steep. Better put the house on the market dear our mortgage just went up £300 a month. Its a delicate balancing act for Carney and co. Economy is good, rates cant stay down here. Doh! Economy only looks good coz rates are down here.

US rate rises
Stronger dollar impacts everyone else. We saw at the beginning of 2014 emerging markets hurting from a significant adverse move vs USD. Weaker USD denominated commodities helps soften the blow. A global economic struggle will impact on the US so the gentle approach to rate rises considered. Long end bonds will still be attractive Flight To Quality so T-bonds and Ultras rates wont go too high with all the Geo politics and Europe shenanigans.

Abenomics
Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results......It can be argued that external situations and events prevented Japan from ever recovering from 25 years of mess. (Makes me fear for Europe even more).


Market Dynamics
ECB ZIRP lower forever. No  participants in Euribor outside of "market makers"," now you see us now you don't". Schatz and Bobl at 0% you'll struggle to see much 2 way flow there. May see value in trading peripheral ecb bonds versus bund.
US stir markets will be where the action will be this year(I think).


That'll do for now. I'm off to look at charts now. May post them ideas tomorrow.

Night night
L

Black Friday

TY 240min
What a very neat chart.

TY 30min bar chart

 

Bund 240min

Bund 30min

 

 

 

Schatz 240min

 

Whilst the Bund continues its slow climb up the wall of worry Schatz remains heavy. With very little reason for short end to move higher Curve trade ideas are simple. Put on flatteners at every slight pull back, it could be argued that just buying bunds is the same thing........But it does seem like there could be extra mileage in selling Schatz.  Something to watch out for over the thin December markets is erratic stop execution. Occasionally you get ridiculous moves so I'll be keeping an eye on this trade for 2 reasons. Gap up bunds extensions and or large Schatz sell stop orders triggered. Not saying they will happen.

 

 

Having said all that, Bund does seem a tad exhausted on the upside just now and could do with a little consolidation before pushing on. Geopolitics aside pre ECB meet week seems as good a time as any for that rest.

 

€ curve