Good morning USA

Nothing to report here, well and truely in holibop mode.
FF spreads

ED spreads

$ curve mini correction coming from the from mid to long end.

$ teds...balanced looking, corridor of uncertainty as Geoff Boycott would say

No postings til 5th of august after today...Then I'll promise to add a bit more meat to this thang.

Be Lucky
L

 

19/07/2013

19/07/2013

 

 

Nikkei dropped over 2% in the wee small hours. I think its profit taking ahead of Sundays elections.
U.S. 10 yr slightly bid since Eurex close.

So I'm expecting bunds to test 144.44 quite early

240 min for a bit more perspective

€ Curve continue to flatten, I think this could continue in to the afternoon, where I anticipate some small position squaring pullback.

 

Bor spreads Flattening out to end of 15 where from there thru 16s I see steeps.

 

 

 

Teds ticking higher.

 

Equity expiries today not much else on the data Calendar.

 

Good Luck

L

 

Nothing

18/07/2013

ten year bund spread.....I have this niggling idea that now QE taper is not at the centre of finance news this spread might look to drift higher. Seeing some U.S. out performance

FF spreads

ED spreads

Some $ curve

U.S. teds

 

Good luck

L

18/07/2013

 

Morning all, Ben kept it tight yesterday. So me thinks market is taking back in taper talk for now.

All set for a range bound summer #sitonhandsabit

 



10 yr

Bund

€ curves I see flattening as the trend at the mo, but think we are near the bottom. Although 5s10s could go a little more.

€ teds, These moving back into middle of range after consolidating recent down trend. Keeping any trades small here. Euribor ripe for big boy bully tactics in the summer market conditions.

 

UK retail sales and some Spanish 3s 5s and 10s auctions are the main things to keep an eye on today.

Afternoon has the usual Thursday Initial Jobless and later on if you're still here Philly fed.

 

Good luck

L

U.S. am 17/07/2013

German 10 yr auction was nothing to scream about.
MPC stirs up the pot...All looking forward to 7th aug meeting now. All 9 members voted no to more QE, any annopuncement regarding implementation on thresholds and forward guidance will be made at the next meeting.
Short stirling fronts went up, Gilts got sold slowly dragging u.s. and bunds downs with it eventually.

All eyes on Ben now. Will he sit on the fence and try his best not to scare the markets?

Fed fund spreads

Eurodollars

$curves

U.S. ted

 

 

Humphrey Hawkins

17/07/2013

Cheeky little uptick in the past 30 mins would suggest to me that Bunds will open close to recent hi.

Boe minutes and a bund auction are this am main points of interest. We could see a temporary impact on € curve stuff from the auction.

They have spent this week in consolidation. I don't expect that to be the case after Ben's testimony later on today. Any hints of a September taper will see some steepening of the curve. We have flattened quite a bit this month. Although it could be argued € is not $ so will not follow the same path....But we all know how everyone follows the U.S.

Teds have continued to consolidate last weeks trend lower with some sideways action....maybe a slight better bid tone.

Bor spreads continue to flatten. Going back into the longer term outlook for rates lo trend. Could see Ben reinforce that view.

U.S. house data and Canadian rate decision to come this afternoon too, they may be of some interest.

Good Luck
L

16/07/2013 U.S. open (no nothing to do with Golf or Tennis)

16/07/2013 U.S. open (no nothing to do with Golf or Tennis)

 

Zew worse than expected 36.3 versus expected 40. Still above historic average of  ~24. Following on from yesterdays poor U.S. data. Had the same effect on the market, stopping the down move and drifting back to mid range. CPIs not worth a mention, UK lower than expected...still hi tho.

No real drive above to search out new hi makes me think we're all waiting for Bernank tomorrow and Thursday. With no action in the longer end I have no real feel on the short end.

Fed Fund spreads

ED

 



 

 

U.S. teds, May look to buy some fva vs m5ED...But small and tight for Bernank.

 

US Curve

 

 

 

ten year vs bunds

16/07/2013 Still too sunny to be indoors!

                                                                       16/07/2013

Disappointing June Retail Sales report put a halt on a lower trending bonds resulting in a jump back to mid range.

Nothing of any note overnight, so I don't expect any fireworks on a Eurex open. All eyes on the ZEW Survey Results and UK/EU/US CPI Today.

The weak US data kept the steep medium term up trend intact on the bunds whilst Ten year looks a little more range bound.

EU Teds, respite from last weeks strong down trend. Although Euribor did start the day off weak. Doesn't take much for the sellers to smash this contract *note to self. Keep long bor positions on a tight leash!

 

Bor Spreads

 

Eurex bond curves building a base here nice cheap short term support. I don't see value in more flattening....That could change on a really bad Zew.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

first of many.......possibly

15/07/2013

Trying something out.......Lets see how this goes!

 

 

 

Bund found its way to 143.77 resitance area last week. Almost like Taper talk has never happened!

Bor curves pulled back enough, have started to steepen again. I fancy that the bond curves have flattened plenty, exaggereated by thin summer volume. I'm looking to put on steepeners now looking to fade any bund up moves toward 144.18 and 144.44ish.

 

In the U.S.

Not so much flight to quality bid last week compared to bund as it would appear that its Europe thats broken. I'll be looking at 126.00 downside break to lead to gap fill and test of 125.05 area.

I see the longer term steepening to continue and would look for 2s10s to offer the most value at present.
                                                              Fed Funds

 

Much as rate hikes are a couple of years away (I think) The Stir products are now in long term steepening tone. I think fade dips in spreads during poor data releases are the way forward.

Plenty of data out this week, so could be nice opportunities. Just keep you clip size small in keeping with the general volume going thru and you should be able to wear any over extended moves.

U.S. teds and ED/FF spread; I'll lay off any comments till I have my eye in fully....(likely to be while yet) But I will be playing the range in this rather than have a directional view at present.