26/01/2014 After the Greek election

Merkel and Draghi's fears being realised this morning as the people of Greece celebrate a Syriza general election win. I'm still not clear on whether this is outright or as a coalition.
After this bit is settled it'll be all eyes on the Troika, will there be a suspension of assistance? will all get around the table and discuss some kind of compromise? Will this Government's ideas be too unworkable that we see another election come April?
Only time will tell......Needless to say Bunds will carry on its march to 0 yield & curve to flatten, I'd also expect BTP to continues its compression vs bunds after its shaken off this brief Grexit fear.


TYA 240min

30min

Bund 240min

30min

€curve

BTP-Bund

BTP 30min

€ ted

EURUSD future 240min

Stoxx Daily continuous

Mini Snp 240min

We have IFO and Euro retail sales this morning for what its worth. Then we can start looking towards the US for some rates of interest later in the week.

ECB QE

Good Luck,

Stand back. Let the noise takeover, pick your prices carefully and DO NOT TRY TO READ THE TAPE!

My Euribor/German bond curve Net close last night.

I've adjusted my ratios for the US version this morning so the wont bother posting that.

On days like today I feel it wise to only look at the longer time frame levels.

TYA 240min

Bund 240min

€ curve

€Ted

BTP-Bund Daily Continuous. Heading back to Pre Greek tragedy levels 

EURUSD future240min

Stoxx Daily Continuous

All markets are anticipating some half hearted "bazzoka". So I'd expect profit taking of some variety after the event before a continuation of the current trends.....Periphs out perform core, equity rally and weakening EUR.

 If Draghi Draghs his feet using the usual excuses I'd imagine the FX and equity markets to tell him in no uncertain terms they are not happy. However, if today is not the day we know its coming. Just marvel at the ridiculousness of the market volatility. 

Good luck 

21/01/2015

Good morning all,

Balanced nothing kind of day yesterday, a small drift lower in bonds and stirs as we jostle for position into tomorrows main event. I'm not expecting much in the way of action from the UK BoE so unless the Bobl auction does something out of the ordinary its likely to be a similar day today. Personally I'll be watching out for any sources story that could go against any of the expectations in place for QE.

Tya 240min

30min

Bund 240min

Bund 30min

There wasn't much of an attempt to push lower yesterday so overall up trend is still the path of least resistance. 

Yesterdays Net change on close

€ Curve

€ Ted

Lack of volume in the Euribor probably meant it overshot to the downside versus bonds yesterday as the teds have come off quite a bit.

Keep powder dry today.

Good luck 

Lee

20/01/2015

Good morning all

TYA 240min

momentum to the upside halted but its been quite a steep climb already this year. We were probably due a little sideways action.

Bund 240min

Bund also due a pull back as we approach ECB meeting. I have the 7th of Jan peak of 157.26 as a decent area for strong support if 157.40 is broken today. Obvious upside target is 158.00 if we don't like downside.

Bund 30 min

€curve

€ted

BtpBund 30min

Main event today will be the Ger ZEW possibly a sources story to pop up....Unless I've missed it this week already.

King Canute

ECJ ruling on the ECB OMT has all but given green light for Draghi to go full retard QE. Therefore SNB's Jordan finally throws in the towel on his King Canute impersonation and drops the floor before the market does it for him. Three years of gold selling comes to nothing and a host of retail FX trades finally fail to get out of the way of the steamroller.

Front end of Europe rates finally witnessed some action thanks to this turn of events. 

Teds

€ curve

Bunds made an obvious new all time high, on this sentiment. However, more attention was paid to the very front end so the curve did flatten but only slightly.

BTP-Bund

I'm actually mildly surprised by the lack of activity here in BTPBund spread. I guess everyone has been positioned for QE for a while.

Bund 240min

30 min

Bobl 30min

EURUSD future 240min

Stoxx 240min

Oh and in the US Philly fed manufacturing was pretty bad coming at 6.3 expected 19.9. Just to ensure long end momentum was maintained.

Tya 240min

Tya 30min

SnP mini 240min

 Good luck
L

13/01/2015

Not much to say about yesterday. Post NFP Monday is always slow. Little on the data front so it was all up to Central bankers to test or influence the market opinion on policy moves. When is ECB QE coming? When will the FED raise rates?

TYA 240min

30min

Bund 240min

30min

 

€ curve

 

€ teds

 

 

BTP Bund spread 30min

 

 

Stoxx 240min

 

 

EURUSD futures 240min

 

Uk CPI, PPI and RPI main events on the data calendar. Otherwise be aware of CBers doing their thing.

 

Good Luck

L