23/02/2014

Oh what fun we have ahead...Data laden week fills me with optimism for a good volatile finish to February.

Bund  240 min.

Although the steam has run out on the up move since NFP day I struggle to see any of this weeks data surprising to the upside. We could drift lower on account of no more bad news but I'm not comfortable with big steepening bets of any conviction yet. I think its just safer to go range trading til my 30 min charts start to define decent trends.

€ Curves.

€ teds

The lower bands of the upward trend were tested over the later part of last week as the bonds made attempts to climb higher. With resolution to the Ukraine issue appearing to be on hand, Italy's political uncertainty seemingly resolved we saw the wind taken out of them sails. I still see buying dips the way forward here.

TYA

$ Curves

These charts don't really help me get a strong conviction for any direction right now.

Safe trading buddies.

Lee

ECB day

Morning all.

As expected a slow start to the day as we prepare for the ECB rate anouncement and Draghi speech.
A test of 143.85 in the bunds this morning looks on the cards but I'm keeping myself out of any directional bias in the am. The continuation of softening inflation data out of Europe increased the chances of a rate cut today, but as it drew closer there is a sense that Draghi will hold off. We could be in for a real volatility treat short term when Sterilization starts to be mentioned along with rates corridors. Plenty of things just around the corner that could set off severe discomfort in the Euro area over the coming months. So its probably wise that Draghi and his merry band continue to remind us they have the tools. This should hopefully steady nerves and prevent any full scale periph bashing to add to EM woes.

Bunds 30 min.

Bund daily, thats quite a trend.

 

 

Cme futures EurUsd Mar. 30min

Stoxx. 30min

 

Something I use as a pretty decent leading indicator for my Teds, Btp Bund spread.

Teds

€curves, I'm getting the first sign of a buy opportunity in curve trades just now. Obviously I'll wait and see what happens this afternoon. The spreads of all crawled over my 60 and 20 moving average. So I have a cheap stop on the short term timeframe. Long term however, I sense it would be foolish to look for any significant rally just now.

 

Bor Spreads

 

Good luck

L

 

 



05022014

 

 

Bunds, we have opened in the middle of this weeks range. Steam seems to have run out a little on the FTQ bund bid just now. With ADP today, ECB rates tomorrow and NFP on Friday its understandable that  buyers would like to take some profit. Lighten the load with some influential moments to come.

 

Emerging market fears although not abated entirely, sentiment is starting to settle and get some perspective. After the exciting "We're all doomed" of January.

Dax 30min chart.

 

Cme EUR fx futures

Tya

 

Curves

Will the ECB cut rates this week, will there be new special measures. Unsterilised measures? Who really knows?

Not much wiggle room just now, spreads continue to flatten  as we feel the impact of US taper. I'm flat right now and will need a pullback to 143.50 before I consider putting on any flatteners. Putting on steepeners would only be short term and depending on the speed of an up move thru bund highs.

Currently 5s10s offers the most opportunity.

 

€teds

I continue to sell rallies in teds going with the longer term view. However, the Schatz teds ( i often use as leading indicator for bob teds) Is beginning to look like its turning. I always feel it foolish to have too many on pre ECB rates. So treading lightly til then.

 

 

Eur retail sales and Bobl auction to look forward to.

Have fun

Lee