29/09/2014

Bund 30min

Based on US tens current print should see bunds open around 149.38, could see an early test of 149.25 area. I don't expect many positive surprises from todays European data releases so I'm not looking for any real follow through this morning.

€ curve

Looking at the short term trend to continue for the morning to go with bunds slightly lower. Month end extensions to consider. Long term tho picture is still for flattening I just wouldn't put any flatteners on at these prices.

€ted

 Schatz ted drifting to bottom of uptrend, poor TLTRO take up weighing on Euribor strength. Trend is still up for now. I'm not expecting too much from this weeks ECB. We'll probably need the December levels on TLTRO before considering if something else is needed. Bobl Ted playing from both sides....slightly more comfortable with longs.

 

 

data for this week....

http://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/

Good luck
L

My monthly charts 28/09/2014

Context. All futures products only
As we move to the end of QE its quite useful to see the impact it has had on the big picture in order to get a feel what the future brings.


Dollar Index

S&P

Gold

Comex Copper

The Ice Arabica Coffee   

Soybean

Wheat 

WTI   

Brent Crude

Rbob

Ftse

Stoxx

14/09/2014

US 10yr

Geo politics taking a back seat, despite some poor data out last week (+nfp week before) US long end now starting reflect the slightly hawkish sentiment. 

10yr 240min

Long term momentum clearly down, after the recent big move last week I wont be surprised if we have a little sideways action for Monday.

10yr 30min

Bund 240min

Following the US lower.

Bund 30 min

€ Curve

Barring some escalation in Geopolitical tensions I'll be looking to fade any bond rallies and position for curves to continue steepening. We really are a t lowest rates now apparently so all there is to do is speculate on UK & US rate hikes.......Until a week before the next ECB meet. We'll be into cutting fractions of a basis point. Some consolidation and a drift in bunds back up to 148.20's would be useful to start getting steeps on.

€ teds

Trend is steady higher, so passive on shorting upticks whilst aggressive to get out. Look to run longs for a bit more. Along with the steeper curve narrative shorter dated bor longs v bonds might offer up good value but that doesn't mean I'm indiscriminate buyer. Still need value just in case of an event that encourages ted collapse. It does happen every now and then.

Plenty of data this week. 

Be Lucky

L

Transfer deadline day is over.

Despite a few minor attempts by the squawks to convince us WW3 was happening, the markets behaved like a lethargic teenager and tried to stay under the duvet all day.
Whilst all in the US shook off Labor day hangovers the markets moved sideways. Schatz and Bobl did creep a little higher versus the bund under growing weight of bank analysts suggestions that 10 Bp cut could be on the cards this week for the ECB.

Bund 30min

Bobl 30min

Schatz 30min

€curve
Despite the slight crawl higher over the past couple of days the momentum on the long term trend flattening is still intact.

 

 

Since Fridays Eurex close the US 10 year is off ~6 ticks,

10 year 30min

 

So with a wet finger in the air bunds could open anywhere between 44 to 50.

 

€teds

So with Schatz and Bobl showing minor strength yesterday we witnessed some pull back in teds from the mid august uptrend.

 

 

 

Todays data    http://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/

 

Good luck

 

L

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pinch punch first day of the month....Labor day so lets get the EU open over with and find something more constructive to do with our day!

 

Bund Daily

 

 

All eyes on Thursday ECB, 10 bp cut? QE or not QE? If QE WTF QE? All fun and games. Smart people at banks tell us that markets haven't fully priced in the rate cut idea just now...Maybe they are just peeved they paid 88/89 in the Schatz on stop last Monday. Anyway,German GDP and some EU manufacturing PMI's to watch for this morning.

 

Bund 30 min. Nothing escalated at the weekend so a bit of event risk could be taken off the table...Or the fact it maintained strong uptrend could mean we test higher in early end of summer thinness. Or with ECB on the horizon some flattening profit could be realised. Momentum clearly to the upside long term & intraday. A break of 151.26 area may see that change but whilst the Middle east RUS/UKR things simmer the likely hood big time selling remains very remote

 

€ curve Late Schatz buying Friday minor steep move against a back drop of significant flattening.

€ teds

Good luck
L