US 10yr
Geo politics taking a back seat, despite some poor data out last week (+nfp week before) US long end now starting reflect the slightly hawkish sentiment.
10yr 240min
Long term momentum clearly down, after the recent big move last week I wont be surprised if we have a little sideways action for Monday.
10yr 30min
Bund 240min
Following the US lower.
Bund 30 min
€ Curve
Barring some escalation in Geopolitical tensions I'll be looking to fade any bond rallies and position for curves to continue steepening. We really are a t lowest rates now apparently so all there is to do is speculate on UK & US rate hikes.......Until a week before the next ECB meet. We'll be into cutting fractions of a basis point. Some consolidation and a drift in bunds back up to 148.20's would be useful to start getting steeps on.
€ teds
Trend is steady higher, so passive on shorting upticks whilst aggressive to get out. Look to run longs for a bit more. Along with the steeper curve narrative shorter dated bor longs v bonds might offer up good value but that doesn't mean I'm indiscriminate buyer. Still need value just in case of an event that encourages ted collapse. It does happen every now and then.
Plenty of data this week.
Be Lucky
L
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