27/09/2013

Good morning all,

Tens marginally lower overnight, could see the bunds look at 139.71 level again.

Ten year

bund

 

Despite the move drift off from highs in the long end I felt that it was dragged down by the weight of short end selling. This pretty much kept the curve unchanged. Watching for month end extensions today.

 

Euribor very heavy yesterday.

€ teds

 

Euro Consumer confidence and CPI French GDP. Italian BTP auction.

 

Good Luck

 

Lee 

 

 

26/09/2013

Good morning all.....
Euribor took back some of this weeks gains early yesterday as LTRO comments taken for what they where, finally. This I think weighed on the Eurex bonds in the am. A failure to break 55/50 meant a retest of 140.00 in the afternoon.
Overnight US bonds off a little so I expect bund to open in the 80s.

TY

Bund

€ curve

Trend is your friend

€ teds

 

bor spreads....Interesting new algo in here this week.

Oh and thanks to the LTRO take back the BOR over ED spread is back to scratch.

 

Loadsa data out this morning in Italian Retail Sales, Dutch Consumer Confidence, EUR M3, German Import Prices, UK GDP. Then a bundle of US stuff in the afternoon including GDP and Initial Jobless.

 

Good Luck

Lee

 

25/09/2013

Good morning,
ECB members highlighting they have tools. Not specifically LTRO but it does remain a possibility so Euribor continues to keep pace with Eurex bonds on their FTQ bid as the fear of Italian downgrade hangs around. US tens did very little overnight so I don't expect the Eurex open to be far away from the lastnights close.

TY

 

Bund

All Eurex curve behaving as it should.....even Bobl has given up keeping pace with the bund.

€ curve

 

€ ted

German Consumer Confidence out this am, Italian BTP auction might be worth watching out for considering the downgrade rumours. U.S. Durable Goods and a 5 year auction this afternoon.

 

 

Good luck

Lee

 

24/09/2013

Good morning.

All about the doves talking yesterday yesterday.
Draghi - Rates will remain at current or lower levels for an extended period - Prepared to use any instrumentincluding another LTRO.
Whilst The Fed's Dudley said the US needs very accommodative monetary policy.
Fed's Lockhart - still a long way before the Fed can claim it has reached its objective of maximum employment - Fear the US is losing its economic mojo.

Obviously bonds and rates went bid. Huge flattening in euribor curve.
US tens is tic off from eurex close so I anticipate a strong start to the Eurex open.

 

If bund stays above 138.70 early then its upwards test of last weeks high.

€ curve continue flattening trend as you would expect with strong upward rally.

€ teds, Euribor staying strong after Draghi LTRO comments.

 

IFO this morning before a host of US data including Consumer Confidence.

US 2 year auction this afternoon aswell.

 

Good Luck

Lee 

 

23/09/2013

Good morning all,

German election over (sort of) and regardless of who the coalition partners are, Merkel is in charge. So I'm guessing the German bond markets are likely to feel rather heavy, equity markets likely to respond positively. U.S. ten year marginly higher than its Friday Eurex close price so it could be an interesting open.

TY

 

But in the aftermath of the no taper shock I would expect the U.S. tens to be stronger than German for a few days more. Then we'll get the Octatper speculation on the horizon.

TY v Bund

Bund

After Thursdays opening spike we've seen the bunds drifting lower.

€ curve

Flat at the mo, plenty of data out this week. Schatz appears heavy so I'm looking at selling up tics in curve involing 2s. Bobl on the other hand seems the favourite purchase. Bobl/Bund very strong and reluctant to sell that unless on a real spike.

€ teds

Even during the bond up move teds are strong...(Schatz week) whilst bobl teds nicely ranging. Showing how strong Bor is.

 

Draghi speaking today (I'm sure he is always speaking)

 

 

Good luck

L

 

 

 

 

Taper day apparently.

Good morning all.
Its gonna be a long day today. MPC minutes at 9:30 worth watching whilst the headline act is at the other end of the day.
Small drift lower in bunds yesterday seemed to help perk up the curve. I think Zew was an influence  for that move as it came in slightly better than expected. We closed just above support and I expect us to open a little higher.
TY

Bunds, I feel the trend is higher and that 10bln taper is considered priced in. So smart money would be on buying any dips as I see no risk of it being larger than that. There is the risk it could be 0 though given recent disapointing data.

 

€ curve Long term 2s10s looks to have broken the uptrend (steepening) and yesterdays drift lower in bunds gave opportunity to fade into flatteners....If brave enough to hold thru FOMC.  5s10s looks strong tho as it heads to contract highs.

€ teds just ticking along. Range trade although I'd be careful of having too many boblteds on long as the bobl seems very strong on the curve so a bond up move could see the Euribor fail to keep pace.

 

Good luck

L

17/09/2013

Thats been two gap opens in a row thanks to Summers. Now thats over can we get back to something a bit more sensible?....One up and one down. Which one was right? In both cases the market moved steadily in the opposite direction of the gap after the initial open action.

TY

Bund

I'm looking at 137.90 area for first area of support although anticipate opening above last nights close price 138.16. So might not be tested straight away. In which case 138.25/27 ish resistance

 

€ curve

We are beginning to test my longer term Steepening bias at the mo. Short term I am selling upticks in spreads now. Although I am likely to be flat in front of FOMC tomorrow evening.

€ teds

The upward trend has died off a little. I am  looking at range trading these for now.

Zew survey this morning could be the main event today but we do have plenty of UK 9:30s to look at first.

 

Good luck

L

 

 

 

12/09/2013

Good morning all,
Bonds pretty much reversed all of mondays down move so I guess we can fill the bund gap nice and early this am without too much trouble.
With U.S. 10s ~3% we saw a very good note auction that probably underpinned the bonds drift higher.

Once gap filled we have NFP high to consider in bunds as with yesterday no new news drivers so its just play the big picture range til FOMC.

Big picture on curve is still steepening trend for me but shorter term has turned in line with the long end drift higher.

teds mid range

 

What will ECB report bring today?

11/09/2013

Good morning all,

Bonds took another tentative step towards taper as Putin becomes peace envoy for the world (temporarily).  Bunds opened weaker than anticipated yesterday and never even came close to looking at the opening gap. I think we may consider testing Friday mornings low but we're probably at an area for range bound trading til FOMC next week.

There is plenty of upside room if Syria idea goes pear shaped...But as I believe it we could have 45 days before that will happen.

 Bund appears to be weaker than its U.S. equivilant just now. Taperlite being positioned for possibly.

Eurex bond curves appear to have reached highs  and may look for a pause before continuing higher....I'm looking for retracements to buy dips. Only selling to go short in the event of quick stop catch trading.

 

€ teds, as expected bobl ted showed strength as Syria situation improves.

 

 

New bund auction to watch out for this morning along with ger CPI.

 

Good luck

L

10/09/2013

Good morning,

I expected a bit more of a sell off in U.S. treasuries overnight with the likelyhood of a strike on Syria beginning to look less on the cards. The fact that it's not cut and dry yet is probably holding the bonds up for now.
tya

Bunds, largly sideways day yesterday a typically quiet post non farm monday. I'm looking for a break of 137.35/31 area to be a target to increase my Steepening bias. Will also look to fade any moves up to 138.00. Everything between is just comission and chop.

€ curve, buying dips

€teds vs Schatz 14 bors continue to trend higher as you would expect in improving economic conditions. Whilst war premium has had an effect further down bor expiries vs Bobl. Could be value here in buying bobl teds....But with inconsistant liquidity provided by the algos. Back bors are always prone to big overshoots.

 

Not sure Italian GDP will have too much impact on the markets today unless shockingly bad, we do have a Bund auction to watch out for.

 

BTP Bund spread

Have fun

L

 

 

 

 

 

09/09/2013

Good morning all,
Negative Non Farm number inspired a long end rally on Friday. Then Obama and Putin not seeing eye to eye scared the bejeeeezus out of everyone. So we find ourselves not too far away from the bottom of the start of last weeks range. Taking back quite a large chunk of "everythings fixed". Looks like a good place to reinstate a short bias on bonds with one eye on what goes on once Obama gets out of Russia.
TY

Bund

Looking at fading into Steepeners, keeping trailing stops tight aware of Syria comments. Also consider Hilsenrath comments after NFP. Sept taper not a done deal.....I'm sure that only puts it off for 4 weeks. (unless NFP is bad again(pattern emerging here))

Bor spreads,

ty vs bund since roll.

 

€ teds

 

 

NFP friday

Good morning all.

Ten year made a new low overnight but with little conviction. Enough tho to suggest there won't be any bounce in the Eurex open until new lows have been explored.
Ten year

Bund

€ curves Steepening as you would expect, I wont be stepping  infront of that freight train just now. #BuyanydipstilNFP

From 15s out the Euribor has been sold even heavier than bonds...Rate rises being priced in sooner than many would have expected. Beginning to question the main Stir market participants and whether they just follow the path of least resistance. Seems like they are getting ahead of central banks everywhere.

 

Is this just a little over extended?

Bobl ted examples

 

Well I've read a lot this week about how today Non Farm number could influence a September Taper. I'm not so sure. Maybe a really bad number may encourage the Fed to put it off a month but I think they have already made their minds up to start. Needless to say there will be action today.

 G20 don't seem to be agreeing on what course of action to take on Syria. So there is reason for caution on this bond down move.

 

Be Lucky

L