Friday 28 November 2014

Black Friday



TY 240min
What a very neat chart.
TY 30min bar chart
 
Bund 240min
Bund 30min
 

 
 
Schatz 240min
 
Whilst the Bund continues its slow climb up the wall of worry Schatz remains heavy. With very little reason for short end to move higher Curve trade ideas are simple. Put on flatteners at every slight pull back, it could be argued that just buying bunds is the same thing........But it does seem like there could be extra mileage in selling Schatz.  Something to watch out for over the thin December markets is erratic stop execution. Occasionally you get ridiculous moves so I'll be keeping an eye on this trade for 2 reasons. Gap up bunds extensions and or large Schatz sell stop orders triggered. Not saying they will happen.
 
 
Having said all that, Bund does seem a tad exhausted on the upside just now and could do with a little consolidation before pushing on. Geopolitics aside pre ECB meet week seems as good a time as any for that rest.
 
€ curve
 
 
 
 

Monday 24 November 2014

24/11/2014




TYA 240min

30min



Plenty of data out this week, Chinese rate cuts and Draghi talking even more dovish(if thats possible) so I anticipate plenty to risk to being short bonds.

Bund 240min

bund 30min

€ curve
Continuing to flatten, even during last Wednesdays Bund sell off, to be fair there is very little the Schatz and Bobl can do to the upside.


BTP-Bund spread continuing to push upwards despite higher Bund prices....Draghi comments are filling the periph with anticipation of full retard QE. I don't see any new measures this year, we'll have to wait till we see the take up of the Dec TLTRO before real talk of next step can be considered. We still have the prospect of dropping the first "T" before outright sovereign purchases.


Good luck
L




Thursday 20 November 2014

20/11/2014



US 10year future

240min
30min


$ curve
S&P Daily

 
 
FOMC minutes over with, Nothing Shocking. Head into year end Equities dressed up as hi as poss, put Geopolitics on the back burner and play the range in treasuries.
 
 
Bund 240min
 
 
bund 30min 
 
Up trend we have seen since end of October appears to have been broken. As with US tys, balanced into year end. Happy to play from either direction.......Maybe tighter stops on short positions tho.
 
 
BTPBund spread 30min
 
Stoxx 240min
 
Plenty of room to the upside in Stoox.......I guess we wait for next years full blown QE.
 
EU Pmi's, UK Retail Sales, Spanish Bond auctions and US CPI among the usual Thursday fare.
Be lucky
L
 
 
 

Tuesday 18 November 2014

18/11/2014

TY 240min


30min

bund 240min

30min


Despite yesterdays all day drift lower the uptrend still in place. Zew out today along with UK cpi, so plenty of stuff to influence this morning before US day begins.



Thursday 13 November 2014

13/11/2014

Turn around Tuesday witnessed a minor drift upwards lacking any conviction. So we sit in the middle of range in US treasuries. One eye looking at the downside trend continuation and one eye on whats going on in Ukraine.

US 10 year futures 240 min
US 10 yr 30min

Bund continued to climb higher ensuring the uptrend is still alive and well despite the late drift off into close. This mornings open has seen an early test of yesterdays low, I'm looking for decent support into 151.20 area to maintain a bullish short term bias.

Bund 240min
 
 
I just think the Bund wont be satisfied until it has reached the October 15th Summit.


Bund 30 min

Usual Thursday data from the US, otherwise be on guard for Russian holiday commentary.

Be lucky

L




Tuesday 11 November 2014

11-11-2014




Bund 240 min
Bund 30 min

Upward trend intact, room for downside correction a possibility. Thursday ECB low of 150.77 will be a good support area to watch for, especially after Friday 150.78 low print was rejected so aggressively. Little on the data front plus Veterans Day so wise to steer clear of mid range trading today.

US ten year 240min


US ten year 30min

Monday saw a brief weak follow through from Fridays buying. This broke the down trend that was in place since US retail sales spike. My money would be a continuation of down trend but we are in a corridor of uncertainty and feel safer to sit out til a break of either 125.235 downside or 127.00 upside for confirmation.


Good Luck
L