Black Friday

TY 240min
What a very neat chart.

TY 30min bar chart

 

Bund 240min

Bund 30min

 

 

 

Schatz 240min

 

Whilst the Bund continues its slow climb up the wall of worry Schatz remains heavy. With very little reason for short end to move higher Curve trade ideas are simple. Put on flatteners at every slight pull back, it could be argued that just buying bunds is the same thing........But it does seem like there could be extra mileage in selling Schatz.  Something to watch out for over the thin December markets is erratic stop execution. Occasionally you get ridiculous moves so I'll be keeping an eye on this trade for 2 reasons. Gap up bunds extensions and or large Schatz sell stop orders triggered. Not saying they will happen.

 

 

Having said all that, Bund does seem a tad exhausted on the upside just now and could do with a little consolidation before pushing on. Geopolitics aside pre ECB meet week seems as good a time as any for that rest.

 

€ curve

 

 

 

 

24/11/2014

TYA 240min

30min

Plenty of data out this week, Chinese rate cuts and Draghi talking even more dovish(if thats possible) so I anticipate plenty to risk to being short bonds.

Bund 240min

bund 30min

€ curve

Continuing to flatten, even during last Wednesdays Bund sell off, to be fair there is very little the Schatz and Bobl can do to the upside.

BTP-Bund spread continuing to push upwards despite higher Bund prices....Draghi comments are filling the periph with anticipation of full retard QE. I don't see any new measures this year, we'll have to wait till we see the take up of the Dec TLTRO before real talk of next step can be considered. We still have the prospect of dropping the first "T" before outright sovereign purchases.

Good luck

L



20/11/2014

US 10year future

240min

30min

$ curve

S&P Daily

 

 

FOMC minutes over with, Nothing Shocking. Head into year end Equities dressed up as hi as poss, put Geopolitics on the back burner and play the range in treasuries.

 

 

Bund 240min

 

 

bund 30min 

 

Up trend we have seen since end of October appears to have been broken. As with US tys, balanced into year end. Happy to play from either direction.......Maybe tighter stops on short positions tho.

 

 

BTPBund spread 30min

 

Stoxx 240min

 

Plenty of room to the upside in Stoox.......I guess we wait for next years full blown QE.

 

EU Pmi's, UK Retail Sales, Spanish Bond auctions and US CPI among the usual Thursday fare.

Be lucky

L

 

 

 

18/11/2014

TY 240min

30min

bund 240min

30min

Despite yesterdays all day drift lower the uptrend still in place. Zew out today along with UK cpi, so plenty of stuff to influence this morning before US day begins.

13/11/2014

Turn around Tuesday witnessed a minor drift upwards lacking any conviction. So we sit in the middle of range in US treasuries. One eye looking at the downside trend continuation and one eye on whats going on in Ukraine.

US 10 year futures 240 min

US 10 yr 30min

Bund continued to climb higher ensuring the uptrend is still alive and well despite the late drift off into close. This mornings open has seen an early test of yesterdays low, I'm looking for decent support into 151.20 area to maintain a bullish short term bias.

Bund 240min

 

 

I just think the Bund wont be satisfied until it has reached the October 15th Summit.


Bund 30 min

Usual Thursday data from the US, otherwise be on guard for Russian holiday commentary.

Be lucky

L

11-11-2014

Bund 240 min

Bund 30 min

Upward trend intact, room for downside correction a possibility. Thursday ECB low of 150.77 will be a good support area to watch for, especially after Friday 150.78 low print was rejected so aggressively. Little on the data front plus Veterans Day so wise to steer clear of mid range trading today.

US ten year 240min

US ten year 30min

Monday saw a brief weak follow through from Fridays buying. This broke the down trend that was in place since US retail sales spike. My money would be a continuation of down trend but we are in a corridor of uncertainty and feel safer to sit out til a break of either 125.235 downside or 127.00 upside for confirmation.


Good Luck
L

ECB Thursday

Set up for a disappointment. Draghi and co would like more time to see the effects of TLTRO before considering the last resort. So I guess we have to wait til the December operation before going full retard.
I'm not quite sure that the banks will take up TLTRO and put it to use the way ECB intend if they know the central bank is configuring something bigger better and freer. What do I know, I will just sell bund up spike and buy bund down spikes regardless!
So lets just look at some charts instead.

Bunds being where there are doesn't give much scope for upside levels, so its time to pay attention to yield charts.

Bund 240 min

 

 

bund 30 mim

 

Eurostoxx Weekly

Euro stoxx 240min

 

Euro Stoxx 30 min

 

 

 

CME Eur futures 240min

 

 

€ curve

 

€ teds

 

btp-bund

oat-bund

 

 

tya-bund

 

gilt-bund

 

 

 

 

 

 

Have fun

L

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

29/09/2014

Bund 30min

Based on US tens current print should see bunds open around 149.38, could see an early test of 149.25 area. I don't expect many positive surprises from todays European data releases so I'm not looking for any real follow through this morning.

€ curve

Looking at the short term trend to continue for the morning to go with bunds slightly lower. Month end extensions to consider. Long term tho picture is still for flattening I just wouldn't put any flatteners on at these prices.

€ted

 Schatz ted drifting to bottom of uptrend, poor TLTRO take up weighing on Euribor strength. Trend is still up for now. I'm not expecting too much from this weeks ECB. We'll probably need the December levels on TLTRO before considering if something else is needed. Bobl Ted playing from both sides....slightly more comfortable with longs.

 

 

data for this week....

http://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/

Good luck
L

My monthly charts 28/09/2014

Context. All futures products only
As we move to the end of QE its quite useful to see the impact it has had on the big picture in order to get a feel what the future brings.


Dollar Index

S&P

Gold

Comex Copper

The Ice Arabica Coffee   

Soybean

Wheat 

WTI   

Brent Crude

Rbob

Ftse

Stoxx