ECB day

Morning all.

As expected a slow start to the day as we prepare for the ECB rate anouncement and Draghi speech.
A test of 143.85 in the bunds this morning looks on the cards but I'm keeping myself out of any directional bias in the am. The continuation of softening inflation data out of Europe increased the chances of a rate cut today, but as it drew closer there is a sense that Draghi will hold off. We could be in for a real volatility treat short term when Sterilization starts to be mentioned along with rates corridors. Plenty of things just around the corner that could set off severe discomfort in the Euro area over the coming months. So its probably wise that Draghi and his merry band continue to remind us they have the tools. This should hopefully steady nerves and prevent any full scale periph bashing to add to EM woes.

Bunds 30 min.

Bund daily, thats quite a trend.

 

 

Cme futures EurUsd Mar. 30min

Stoxx. 30min

 

Something I use as a pretty decent leading indicator for my Teds, Btp Bund spread.

Teds

€curves, I'm getting the first sign of a buy opportunity in curve trades just now. Obviously I'll wait and see what happens this afternoon. The spreads of all crawled over my 60 and 20 moving average. So I have a cheap stop on the short term timeframe. Long term however, I sense it would be foolish to look for any significant rally just now.

 

Bor Spreads

 

Good luck

L