05022014

 

 

Bunds, we have opened in the middle of this weeks range. Steam seems to have run out a little on the FTQ bund bid just now. With ADP today, ECB rates tomorrow and NFP on Friday its understandable that  buyers would like to take some profit. Lighten the load with some influential moments to come.

 

Emerging market fears although not abated entirely, sentiment is starting to settle and get some perspective. After the exciting "We're all doomed" of January.

Dax 30min chart.

 

Cme EUR fx futures

Tya

 

Curves

Will the ECB cut rates this week, will there be new special measures. Unsterilised measures? Who really knows?

Not much wiggle room just now, spreads continue to flatten  as we feel the impact of US taper. I'm flat right now and will need a pullback to 143.50 before I consider putting on any flatteners. Putting on steepeners would only be short term and depending on the speed of an up move thru bund highs.

Currently 5s10s offers the most opportunity.

 

€teds

I continue to sell rallies in teds going with the longer term view. However, the Schatz teds ( i often use as leading indicator for bob teds) Is beginning to look like its turning. I always feel it foolish to have too many on pre ECB rates. So treading lightly til then.

 

 

Eur retail sales and Bobl auction to look forward to.

Have fun

Lee