Known Unknowns

No looking at the markets, charts or news. Not even gym. Just eating, drinking and playing games with the kids for 2 weeks.
So I'm just gonna waffle on about a few things that will shape my trading eye for Q1 2015.

Decisive outcomes.....Good or Bad are met with relief in the trading world. Its the bit in the middle that we don't like.
Grexit
So 2015 kicks off with a Greek election that has seen the resurrection of the "Grexit" term. Syriza do as they promise if they get in and Draghi wont have to worry so much about full QE questions for a while....Other "periph" nations of Europe will also consider to vote for populist anti ECB.
Spain takes to the polls later in the year and the outcome of the Greek election could be an influence.

QE or not QE
Draghi can keep waxing lyrical about structural reforms or how we need to wait for the effects of TLTRO to filter through. Other governmental uncertainties aside every rate meeting will be dominated by how and when the ECB buy sovereign debt.

Russian Soldiers holidaying in The Ukraine.
No sign of  Putin bowing to the west and changing his stance on this subject. Sanctions on the nation add to that a very weak Oil price. Will a Russian debt default impact on the global markets? The situation has only added extra pressure to Europe and its attempts to stave off stagnation.

SNB & defending the Franc floor. (Pissing in the wind). All ECB action to inject economic growth in Euro nations only adds to the flight of money into Swiss Francs. Interesting tug of war that cannot be resolved whilst Europe is in such a mess.

UK general election and rate rises.
The first rate rise could trigger a number of pessimistic outcomes. Self fulfilling prophecy how fast and how steep. Better put the house on the market dear our mortgage just went up £300 a month. Its a delicate balancing act for Carney and co. Economy is good, rates cant stay down here. Doh! Economy only looks good coz rates are down here.

US rate rises
Stronger dollar impacts everyone else. We saw at the beginning of 2014 emerging markets hurting from a significant adverse move vs USD. Weaker USD denominated commodities helps soften the blow. A global economic struggle will impact on the US so the gentle approach to rate rises considered. Long end bonds will still be attractive Flight To Quality so T-bonds and Ultras rates wont go too high with all the Geo politics and Europe shenanigans.

Abenomics
Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results......It can be argued that external situations and events prevented Japan from ever recovering from 25 years of mess. (Makes me fear for Europe even more).


Market Dynamics
ECB ZIRP lower forever. No  participants in Euribor outside of "market makers"," now you see us now you don't". Schatz and Bobl at 0% you'll struggle to see much 2 way flow there. May see value in trading peripheral ecb bonds versus bund.
US stir markets will be where the action will be this year(I think).


That'll do for now. I'm off to look at charts now. May post them ideas tomorrow.

Night night
L