Friday 4 April 2014

NFP friday

As the dust settles on ECB rate conference a QE type of affair appears to be looming closer. Maybe a rate cut too if inflation doesn't pick up soon.
With U.S. in taper mode the ten year showed very little sign of buying interest in front of non farm payrolls, so I'm gonna stick my neck out on the line and say new low for these today providing the data isn't terrible.
ty 30 min

Bund 30 min
After a breif post presser rally in bunds (influenced by the shorter end I think) this morning we are back to drifting lower. It will be interesting to see if we can break 142.60 again before the US employment data. I'm looking for bunds to get to that 142.40 region.

€ curve
 
Long term  these have now turned bullish and I feel comfortable buying dips. Bobl feels particularly strong.
 
 
€ teds
 
 
The prospect of more easing has light a fire under the Euribors right now & the reds and greens have been very strong....Especially considering the strength of the bobl vs othe eurex bonds. I'm reluctant to go against this trend just now.....Also wouldn't see any value buying them without considerable pullback. Sitting on hands and wait for a range to establish again.
 
EURUSD (CME fx futures jun14) 30min
 
The Draghi comments had the desired effect weakening the Euro. Whilst the investors of Eurostoxx 50 showed their approval after a the initial unch release blip.
 
 
Good luck
Lee
 

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