Friday 29 August 2014

29/08/2014

For all intents and purposes Russia has invaded Ukraine. As if we needed any reason to buy Bunds already!
Overnight US 10s are unchanged as they look for bunds for directional lead just now. So 71ish open in bunds striking target for new hi's early doors.
Daily bund chart

I don't see any reason to go short until we see a parabolic panic buying spree. That's said the current Geopolitical drive has also meant that bunds are starting to outperform European peripheral bonds. So if the Russia/Ukraine issue doesn't intensify there could be value in fading this rally against BTP's or OAT's. Any ECB extra stimulus in the near future is likely to encourage tightening in those spreads.

BTP-Bund 30min
 
OAT-Bund 30min
 
€ curve
 
Schatz/Bobl spread appears uninterested and range bound as the Flight to quality long end grab continues. Maybe both of these have found satisfactory yield levels until tightening policy appears on the horizon.
 
€ ted
 
 
 
All eyes on EUR CPI this morning
 
Good luck
L
 

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