24/03/2014

tya 24032014Strange start to the week. I'm still not aware of why the U.S. rates & bonds were so heavy overnight. Saw some ramblings about possible China fiscal stimulus.....I'm gonna consider the possibility that after a Friday cover of post Yellen positions, just to lighten the load into a weekend. We could have seen some uncertainty arise from the Russian sanctions. So Sunday night arrives and no war starting, lets just reinstate those hawkish positions.
U.S. 10 year 30min

The overnight market weighed heavily on the Eurex open we did see a little punch below 142.25 on the back of a stronger than expected French PMI. No one rushing to change positions after the German and European PMIs So its been up to Liikanen to remind us the Europe can still be cutting rates in the very near future.

Bund 30 min

I still expect 142.70ish to be the first test of any real upside move in the bunds.The real concern for bund bears is if we break above 142.90 area tho. Downside Support for me - 142.25(Honest I had it there previously),142.06 & 141.81.  

 

€ curve As we approach month end and quarter end the short term chart is a little mid range and I look to my bund levels to give me clues as to what I wanna play. Long term tho, testing the upper area of a downward trend. Should be cheap stops putting on longer term flatteners

 

€ teds Bobl ted nicely range bound, whilst Shcatz ted appears to be drifting in a downtrend short term. A bit "corridor of uncertainty" for the Schatz ted. I guess European rate cuts and big LTRO repayments keep the waters muddy on Bor front end direction. I'm likely to sit on hands here.

 

Good luck