A White Swan: New week 08/02/2015

Non farm payroll data surprised to the upside 257k vs 228k expected. US bonds took quite a tumble, dragging Bunds with it kicking and screaming "i don't wanna go down"
Well Bobl ignored this action...Did somebody know something?
Maybe the S&P downgrade of Greece later in the evening had some effect. There is plenty up in the air on the Greek saga, Tsipras sounding stubborn this weekend hasn't calmed the Grexit talk that's for sure.

US Eurodollar and notes/ bonds net change Friday

EU Euribor and German bond futures net change.

US 10 year futures

Even before the payrolls data there was a sense that a down move was coming. Momentum to the upside beginning to slow especially with the ECB on Greek Collateral comments Thursday. Appears a very split camp with regards to rate rises at the moment. September rise seems sensible whilst many seem to be considering June. All this while 17 central banks around the world cut rates in the first 5 weeks of 2015. It could be possible that Fed don't even raise this year.

Anyway these are my charts of the 10s. I doubt we'll see continued selling on Monday. Europe will drive proceedings but upside could be restricted.

Bund

Traded heavy Friday after the opening gap higher, the release of NFP encouraged even lower. Not nearly enough to break the long term up trend. Plenty of little areas for chop between 158.40 & 159.10. Probably wise to avoid those as we might be sensitive to squawks all week long as ECB/Greece continue in their stare out competition. There is usually more reward in buying dips than selling up moves, but last week made me think we might be nearing the end of that.