Debt Ceiling Fatigue

Bored, get it over with....We all know this brinkmanship is all part of the grand plan. Once a last minute deal is done Euphoria in capital markets will lead to uncontrollable optimism. Even my grumpy dad will be happily asking me what stocks to put his hard earned into.


And we're back in the room
U.S. 10s pretty flat overnight so I don't expect any fireworks straight off the open in bunds. It is trading very heavy tho so I expect a test of the low at some point this am. With U.S. debt getting Fitched last night we do have a reason to buy bunds....So lets just sit on the fence and leave it to the Algo of least resistance to show us the way!
TY

Bund

 

€ curve

€teds

 

Schatz auction will be of interest. EU CPI may give some relief from all the Washington palaver!

 

Good luck

Lee 

15/10/2013

Positive signs coming from Washington lead to safe haven trades being taken off. S&P heads for the moon.
Mini S&P

On thin volume U.S. treasuries head lower. Support found at 125.215 in the 10s. We have drifted slightly higher since Eurex closed by 3/4 ticks. The sentiment remains tho so I expect bunds to open low 40s and look for lower.

Bunds

€ curve, moar steepening.

€ teds Showed great strength yesterday afternoon in thin markets Euribor had no interest as the bonds headed lower.

ZEW main European focus today.

Good luck

Lee

 

Columbus Day

Good morning all,

U.S. tens up over 5 full ticks overnight.

Mini S&P Gap down on open but still a long way from Wednesdays low point.

I expect the bund to open higher today...Negating the moderatly heavy Friday close. If it holds above 139.73 this am we could see a test of 140.06/12 region.

As the 17th gets closer we still don't seem any closer to a resolution so my "fade bad news" becomes all the more risky. Especially as we a re quite some way from the previous bund high.

€ Curve, I still favour steeper curve but tighten stops a little until uncertainty in he US is taken away.

€ teds, Already seeing some comments on twitter re LTRO the 3rd!

Very little on the data front and as its a U.S. bank holiday I anticipate a slow afternoon.

 

Good Luck

Lee

 

 

Downton Abbey

Fed Fund 12 month curve, Friday, last month, last year

Mini SnP, look out below

Bund 240 min simples. After testing upside and failing last week the bund managed to break to the downside. Giving us a technical short bias. Unfortunately the U.S. gov failure over this weekend means we are likely to see some Flight To Quality budding in the morning.

Bund 30 min Fib

Bund 30 min 20MA & 60MA

U.S. 2 year. Under pressure early part of last week as all major investment companies fled short dated U.S. debt fearing no resolution come the 17th debt ceiling. Thursdays news of agreed discussion gave hope. We saw a some pull back in 2s from this. However this weekends news may put the pressure on again.

Bobl ted....Something I'll be watching with interest on the open tomorrow. LTRO repayments not as high as expected gave the Euribor the impetus to outperform. I would imagine the Bobl will take that back from the open. Don't be surprised if we get comments about new or extending the current LTRO's soon this week if the Washington situation is not resolved.

See you all in the morning

Good night

Lee

Friday 11/10/2013

Good morning you lovely people.
Temporary truce in Washington, Janet Yellen - Seamless baton change over from Ben (I think) and FOMC minutes sounding ever so slightly like Taper is still on the cards for this year although without data it wont be at the next meet. No bad news rearing up anywhere else. So bear steepening is the game plan. This despite a good 30 year auction lastnight, I mean that was seen as a positive right? Confidence in the quality of the instrument as an investment.
mini snp

ty

Overnight US 10s drifted back to middle of recent range so I expect bunds will open a few ticks higher...If they stay below 75 this am I'll be confident of a test of 139.10. Continued out performance of U.S over German

bund

 

€ curve I'll be looking to fade dips in these providing no more shock news comes out from anywhere.

 

€ teds as with the curves the down trend broken I will be buying dips......Obviously careful of LTRO talk and Euribor inconsistent liquidity.

btp vs bund spread.....A couple of BTP auctions to watch out for.

German CPI could be of interest this am also looking at the Michigan Consumer Sentiment this afternoon.....In the wake of Gov shutdown this could come in quite negative. May be a factor to consider on my steepening trades.

 

 

Good luck all.

 

Lee

 

 

 

 

On The Ninth Day

As fear and uncertainty are displayed in the very front of the U.S. curve 10s appears unmoved. So I expect the bunds to be opening around lastnights close.
Ty

Another range bound day yesterday for bunds. With Equities looking heavy and the U.S. still unable to settle their issues the range looks like it could break to the upside. 

bund

Dax

 

€ curve lingering round its low areas, if bunds does break to the upside then I expect significant flattening to occur. Bobl auction today...Could play an interesting part in the days patterns.

 

€ teds...Ft article about penalties for banks recieving ECB aid had a heavy impact on Euribor from the start of the day. As a bizarre credit issues arise in the U.S. these teds continue to drift lower.

 

Real FTQ! ty-bund

Ger Industrial production and bobl auction are the main things this A.M. This evening sees the U.S. 10 year auction and FOMC minutes.

 

Good luck

Lee

Bored yet!

Well monday was a day with little trade entry.....Still no change in the U.S. stand off. Nothing of note happened overnight so I expect bunds to open around its close price, maybe be a tic or 2 higher.
I'm neutral to slighty bearish bonds at the mo. Its all about timing.

Tya

Bund

Range bound and waiting.

 

€ curve

 

 € teds

 

 U.S. tens vs bunds

 

Data front has nothing to get excited about, must be on your guard tho. Quite a few Central bank speakers. ECB's Costa and Weimann, Germany's Schaeuble and Fed's Pinalto and Plosser.

 

Good luck