Thursday 14 November 2013

14/11/2013

Good morning,

Praet ECB chief economist yesterday signalled that the ECB could adopt negative rates or purchase assets to ensure price stability. This has broken the weeks downward momentum in bonds, notes & stirs. Strong Ten year auction from the U.S. encourage more buying of treasuries. The rally seem to have peaked around 126.275 area which is handy as it looks to me to be the approximate top of the current downtrend. Abreak above here may signal much higher prices into year end.
Yellen speaking this afternoon will be interesting.
TY
 
Bund, likewise stopped its arally infront of 141.42 area that again looks like the top of the downtrend. For me to remain bearish I would like to see a break of 141.26 quite early. If we open above 42, we might see some stop buying early.
€ curve, yesterdays rally driven by Praet's Dovish comments has helped correct the steepening that was underway. Long term we are holding on to support here. Whilst short term has turned bearish. A break of 26 below in bund would signal a continuation fo uptrend in spreads. A break of 141.42 will cause me to reconsider the long term steepening bias.
 
This all after a what seemed to me a fairly Hawkish UK Quarterly Inflation Report & positive Unemployment data. So this is what Gilt-Bund spreads look like.
 
 
Plenty on tha data front this am to point the bunds in a direction. Starting with European GDPs, ECB monthly report and UK retail sales
 
Good luck
Lee
 

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