Heading into thanks giving, seems like the holiday started monday. If it werent for the verbal diarrhea of the ECB members we wouldn't have had any reason to trade rates or bonds this week!
We are also heading into month end, many big players will be packing up for the year too I expect. Leaving us small fries to the mercy of the algo bully. No worries keep yer powder dry and said algo will hand you plenty of free money in the quiet December market.
Big picture. The US 10s is on the blue line that to me is trending higher. Will be interesting to see if can push above 127.055 today.
US tens
Bund
Bund all but reached first target of 141.79 lastnight. No change to the story, so I only see down moves as a chance to buy. Just in case you havent heard....Negative rates arn't ruled out, depo rates can still be cut. Deflation risks are still there and ECB have tools at their disposal. The room for the manoeuvre on interest rates has not been exhausted. Another day another way to say"we might cut rates again" is in the post
€ curve
Month end extensions, bond roll also starting to come in to play. As with the bund tho, sentiment and theme are still the same. I'm looking to sell rallies til a new story is on the line. Maybe look to fade long any down moves in Euribor too.
EUR consumer confidence UK gdp and a host if US data to look forward too. Look out for the results of the bund auction around 10/10:30 am too.
Good luck
Lee
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